Global real estate investing

Our Strategies Since we started investing in real estate in , the growth of our business across both products and geographies has expanded our ability to provide practical and diverse solutions to our limited partners. We have invested successfully through all market cycles and across the entire risk spectrum. Opportunistic Opportunistic Our opportunistic business seeks to acquire undermanaged, well-located assets across the world. In connection with these acquisitions, we build businesses that are set up to manage the underlying properties and ultimately maximize their value by instituting best-in-class management.

Post-acquisition, we also invest in the properties to improve them before selling the assets and returning capital to our limited partners. Debt Debt Our real estate debt business provides creative and comprehensive financing solutions across the capital structure and risk spectrum. We originate loans and invest in debt securities underpinned by high-quality real estate.

We outperform by concentrating our capital in our best ideas. Our companies came together to network, share knowledge and learn more about how we drive value through sustainable business practices. BioMed Realty is a leading private provider of real estate solutions to the life sciences and technology industries. In collaboration with the City of New York, we preserved 5, affordable apartments for 20 years through our acquisition. In , StuyTown completed the installation of the largest private multifamily residential rooftop solar project in the U.

Our portfolio is comprised of high-quality assets located in major logistics hubs in countries such as Germany, France, the U. It is differentiated in its character and function, comprised of over 5, rental units with diverse uses including last mile logistics and storage, retail, food and beverage, office and leisure. Conversely, sectors with high vacancy rates and excess supply pipelines or even negative demand patterns may see revenues fall below the inflation rate unless rents keep pace.

Pandemic-related exceptions, however, are becoming visible. The shift to hybrid home-and-office working patterns means that the link between aggregate market vacancy and the availability of grade A rental space has been weakened. In some markets, we expect to see high vacancy rates associated with surprisingly robust rental growth — and in these instances, maintaining a focus on quality is essential. In the coming 12 to 18 months, we expect to see real estate continue to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns with meaningful inflation protection in a rising rate environment — as long as economic growth continues unabated.

Strong fundamental analysis is also of paramount importance. Well-informed sector selection is even more meaningful now that some assets — particularly retail, office and residential properties — risk sliding toward obsolescence under changing environmental and building standards. In the coming 12—18 months, we expect to see real estate continue to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns with meaningful inflation protection in a rising rate environment — as long as economic growth continues unabated Exhibit 1.

Stagflation is still a downside risk, and not all real estate markets are created equal: Identifying regional and sector-specific pockets of opportunity will be essential in the months ahead. Morgan Asset Management; data as of September All returns in USD based on projections for 10—15 years. Volatility measures include de-smoothing for private assets to ensure comparability with listed assets.

Investors need to take heed, however, because these favorable conditions may not last. Cash flow-generating assets are likely to become increasingly expensive in as the real estate market becomes more crowded. Concurrent demand dynamics are actively reshaping the industry.

Since the economic recovery began in late , we have seen unprecedented fundraising by non-traded private real estate investment trusts REITs and an acceleration of institutional portfolio rebalancing, which always lags behind spikes in the value of equity and fixed income portfolios. As investors come under increasing pressure to find yield-producing assets, we expect to see capital flows into real estate increase sharply. At the same time, long-term megatrends, such as the surging popularity of e-commerce transactions and, in the U.

These structural transformations have accelerated precipitously in the wake of the global pandemic, creating distinct and regionally specific investment opportunities. Parsing opportunities by sector and region In the months ahead, we will be focusing on an array of sectors that are benefiting from high user demand: logistics properties particularly infill logistics assets in the so-called last mile between urban storage facilities and consumers ; suburban multi-family and single-family housing in Sunbelt states; campus-like clusters or nodes of amenity-rich offices for the technology sector; and industrial outdoor storage facilities including truck terminals, parking and equipment storage in key urban locations.

As we move deeper into , contrarian investment opportunities in stressed corporate and retail subsectors may start to emerge. Leasing markets for offices are likely to recover slowly, potentially creating refinancing challenges for asset owners. If declines in asset values overshoot the intrinsic development costs associated with these properties, opportunistic investments in offices may become highly attractive. Although contrarian plays are already apparent in retail, this sector is very different: Maintaining a focus on quality is essential.

Our argument for highly selective retail investing has been validated, somewhat paradoxically, by the pandemic: Retail assets in top locations that have benefited from significant capital investment are thriving, while poor-quality assets are failing.

The chasm between the two appears destined to grow wider in the months ahead. European real estate is also benefiting from attractive entry pricing as yield spreads over government bonds remain historically high. Investors, keenly aware of this developing dynamic, are putting more capital to work. Real estate capital flows buoyed by accelerating sector rotation Although the European Central Bank has indicated that it does not intend to raise rates until , investors are already rotating out of fixed income into a range of diversifying alternatives — including real estate — that offer yield, inflation hedging and compelling returns.

The risk that a resurgent wave of COVID infections could still derail the fragile economic recovery also introduces an element of uncertainty. Seen in context, the shift toward real assets — and real estate in particular — is feeding into a dynamic, longer-term trend. Complex sector-specific opportunities demand closer scrutiny The investment opportunity set is decidedly mixed.

Although some sectors offer compelling evidence of pandemic resilience, others — especially in the retail sector — are masking inherent and growing weakness. With these issues in mind, our European real estate experts have been conducting analysis of individual sectors Exhibit 2. In logistics, for example, strong returns in recent years can be attributed primarily to yield compression; outside the "last-mile" submarket, rental growth has been subdued.

The differential resilience of European real estate sectors and projected long-term returns requires careful analysis Exhibit 2: Long-term return forecasts for European core real estate EUR Source: J. Morgan Asset Management; data as of November We expect this trend, which is being driven by robust demand and growing supply constraints, to spread to the wider European market, where rental growth should offset low current yields and continue to support logistics returns.

Structural supply shortages and affordability issues continue to drive the investment case for residential assets, which remain attractive. Retail still represents a major risk. Even in sectors that have experienced a correction in capital values, the ongoing shift from physical to online retail suggests a threat of continued obsolescence and further rental decline. Today's current high yields are unlikely to translate into attractive returns over the medium term.

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