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Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Lessons learn from using my model There are four lessons to be learnt from my model. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.

I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work. There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.

Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend…. This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points this is also something I look at in the book. There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.

My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear. Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.

How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide. There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for. In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.

Sports betting was dominated by ball sports, reflecting popular interest in these events. More than three-quarters The most popular bets placed to win, had a relatively high rate of losses and lowest average returns, which may reflect less sophisticated betting behaviour. More specific handicap and total bets were placed by fewer customers, but were larger bets with the greatest returns. As the first paper to analyze the types of bets placed on events and outcomes the results support the notion that wagering is an entertainment activity, and the majority of customers are motivated by factors other than simply winning money.

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